Monday #skvotes 2016 Results and Potentially Unchartered Territory.

Below I’ve broken down these (really unsurprising) riding prognostications first by region, then by party and the candidate who will win, with the result being:

NDP – 9 | Sask Party – 44 | Wild Cards – 8

My reason for labelling a riding a Wild Card is explained alongside it. None of it is complicated.

Ultimately I think this is how it’s going to shake out:

NDP – 14 | Sask Party – 47

In 2011 the Sask Party won 85 per cent of the province’s (then 58) seats, and the NDP 15 per cent.

In 2016 the Sask Party will take 77 per cent and the NDP 23 per cent, or some very close variation thereof.

Based on the parties’ leadership and the way they ran their campaigns, the Sask Party under Brad Wall is undoubtedly the best choice at the ballot box.

That doesn’t mean, however, that this overall outcome is good for this province.

It’s been 100 years since we’ve seen eight consecutive years, or two terms, of this kind of disproportionately weighted government, and emaciated Opposition – aka Accountability.

Further, we’re also likely going to see both that disproportionately weighted government and emaciated Opposition enter distracting, likely divisive, leadership races over the next four years. That will be a first for this province, to the best of my knowledge.

You can’t fault the Sask Party for being the first choice, and for many, the only choice. That’s like blaming McDonald’s for the Big Mac.

The Saskatchewan NDP has got to get it’s shit together and provide voters with an alternative. Eventually everyone gets sick of eating McDonald’s, but gimmicks like the Angry Whopper are clearly not sending anyone across the street.

It’s either that, or tear down Burger King altogether to make room for something new.

Now I’m hungry.

With that in mind, here’s how I think the results are going to look after polls close on Monday night.

Regina

NDP:

Elphinstone-Centre – Warren McCall

Lakeview – Carla Beck

Rosemont – Trent Wotherspoon

Sask Party:

Gardiner Park – Gene Makowsky

Northeast – Kevin Doherty

Rochdale – Laura Ross

University – Tina Beaudry-Mellor

Wascana Plains – Christine Tell

Wild Cards:

Coronation Park – Ted Jaleta could very likely take this longtime NDP riding away from Sask Party incumbent Mark Docherty. Either way it’s a shame, because Docherty is an excellent MLA, and Jaleta would make an excellent MLA.

Douglas Park – CJ Katz is replacing one-term incumbent Russ Marchuk for the Sask Party. Another longtime NDP riding, I’m not convinced Katz can hang on to it. Nicole Sarauer has been campaigning hard for the NDP. Another two really great candidates.

Pasqua – This one is favored for the Sask Party’s Muhammed Fiaz, but frankly, the NDP’s Heather McIntyre is the stronger candidate. There is also a decent-sized chunk of the riding’s Sask Party base who are still not happy about losing Bill Hutchinson as the candidate, or how they lost him. I’m interested to see if those voters still turnout, and if so, what they decide is more important: partisanship or local strength.

Walsh Acres – It should have been a tight race, but the original NDP candidate in this riding was a casualty of that campaign’s Week 1 social media debacle, therefore the Sask Party’s Warren Steinley should slide through. But, you never know.

Saskatoon

NDP:

Centre – David Forbes

Nutana – Cathy Sproule

Westview – Cam Broten

Sask Party:

Churchill-Wildwood – Lisa Lambert

Eastview – Corey Tocher

Meewasin – Roger Parent

Northwest – Gord Wyant

Silverspring-Sutherland – Paul Merriman

Southeast – Don Morgan

Stonebridge-Dakota – Bronwyn Eyre

Willowgrove – Ken Cheveldayoff

Wild Cards:

Fairview – This one will come down to a handful of votes between Sask Party incumbent Jennifer Campeau and the NDP’s Vicki Mowat. The candidate who does the best job of getting out her vote is going to win this riding.

Riversdale – NDP incumbent Danielle Chartier is favored to win, but Sask Party candidate Marv Friesen is well-known in this riding. Could be a surprise in-store for Chartier, who desperately wants to hang on.

University – Projections show Sask Party candidate Eric Olauson fourteen points ahead of NDP candidate Jennifer Bowes, but there are three fringe candidates in this riding. If Bowes ends up stealing a few points from the Green Party, and Olauson loses a few to the Liberal and Progressive Conservative candidates, it could end up being not quite the cake walk Olauson thinks it will. It’s beyond me how this riding nomination went uncontested for the Sask Party.

Prince Albert

Sask Party:

Carlton – Joe Hargrave

Wild Card:

Northcote – The NDP have poured a ton of resources into candidate Nicole Rancourt, and she will likely earn a deserved-win over Sask Party incumbent Victoria Jurgens.

Moose Jaw

NDP:

Wakamow – Karen Purdy

Sask Party:

North – Warren Michelson

Northern Saskatchewan

NDP:

Athabasca – Buckley Belanger

Cumberland – Doyle Vermette

Sask Party:

Lloydminster – Colleen Young

Meadow Lake – Jeremy Harrison

Saskatchewan Rivers – Nadine Wilson

Carrot River Valley – Fred Bradshaw

Cut Knife-Turtleford – Larry Doke

The Battlefords – Herb Cox

Rosthern-Shellbrook – Scott Moe

Batoche – Delbert Kirsch

Melfort – Kevin Phillips

Central Saskatchewan

Sask Party:

Kindersley – Bill Boyd

Rosetown-Elrose – Jim Reiter

Biggar-Sask Valley – Randy Weekes

Martensville – Nancy Heppner

Humboldt – Donna Harpauer

Arm River-Watrous – Gregory Brkich

Kelvington-Wadena – Hugh Nerlien

Canora-Pelly – Terry Dennis

Yorkton – Greg Ottenbreit

Southern Saskatchewan

Sask Party:

Cypress Hills – Douglas Steele

Wood River – David Marit

Swift Current – Brad Wall

Lumsden-Morse – Lyle Stewart

Indian Head-Milestone – Don McMorris

Weyburn-Big Muddy – Dustin Duncan

Last Mountain-Touchwood – Glen Hart

Moosomin – Steven Bonk

Melville-Saltcoats – Warren Kaeding

Estevan – Lori Carr

Cannington – Dan D’Autremont

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3 comments

  1. I really wish there was an alternative in Cannington to Dan Do-little.
    I’d really like to vote for the Sask Party but cannot bring myself to support the incumbent.
    With our issue of #sheepkillbison and ongoing legal issue with our neighbor we have tried numerous times to get a meeting with our local MLA’s and those calls have gone unreturned.

    I realize it’s a difficult issue but it is not going away on it’s own.

    Like

  2. An truly progressive, preferably centre, alternative to both shitty options in SK would be much appreciated! I don’t want to vote for either.

    Like

  3. I’ll vote green for the first time this election. I’m fed up with the virtual 2 party system, and somebody has to help legitimize the other 3 parties if the media (responsible for holding the leaders debate) won’t.

    Wall is at best a shameless panderer calling SK strong when oil is dragging everything down, that faked budget, and sour relationship with Ottawa designed to rally support. At worst a crook along with everyone involved in the GTH affair, not to mention LEAN.

    Broten over extended with that move in the week 1 social media fiasco.

    It’s gross here. The polarized system breeds ignorance. Just look at your social media newsfeed.

    Like

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